Now credited with 30% of the vote in the polls for the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron has carved out a niche for himself relative to his main opponents. In the “rolling” carried out daily by OpinionWay for Les Echos and Radio Classique, Marine Le Pen points 12 points behind, this Tuesday, with 18% of the votes. One month after the first round, “the gap is significant but not unprecedented,” says Frédéric Micheau, deputy director general of OpinionWay and author of the essay “Le Sacre de l’opinion” (editions du Cerf).
In a series of messages posted on Twitter, he recalls that an Ifop survey carried out from November 6 to 16, 1965 had given a 37 point difference between Charles de Gaulle (61%) and François Mitterrand (24%). However, the latter will manage to force the outgoing president into a second round.
In 1988, an Ipsos poll, dated March 23-24, 1988, measured a difference of 16 points between François Mitterrand (38%) and Jacques Chirac (22%). Not very far, this time, from the final result (a difference of 14 points, with scores of 34.1% for the outgoing president and 19.9% for the prime minister who lives with him).
The gap created by Emmanuel Macron is in no way a guarantee of victory, Frédéric Micheau also recalls. “The candidate who is ahead in voting intentions a month before the election is not necessarily ahead the night of the first round,” he points out, recalling two examples. “At the end of March 1995, Jacques Chirac (27.5%) was ahead of Lionel Jospin (20%) (CSA survey, March 24-25, 1995). On April 23, he was overtaken by the Socialist (but is still the winner in the second round, editor’s note). At the end of March 2002, Lionel Jospin (23%) and Jacques Chirac (23%) were on the same level in terms of voting intentions (BVA poll for Paris Match, March 21-23, 2002). On April 21, only the outgoing President qualified for the second round.
“Arrogance can kill. humility never
Fearing a possible demobilization of their electorate, supporters of Emmanuel Macron are also the first to warn against the feeling that the 2022 presidential election is folded. “Nothing has been decided for the election because the risk of abstention is strong. Arrogance can kill. Never humility”, warned Christophe Castaner, before LREM deputies on Tuesday, reports RTL.
Despite the good polls for Emmanuel Macron, “nothing has been decided for the election because the risk of abstention is high”, warns Christophe Castaner before the LREM deputies this morning. And in the context of crisis, he warns: “Pride can kill. Humility never.” @RTLFrance
— Vincent Derosier (@VincentDEROSIER) March 8, 2022
“Everything is done to disgust the French with politics, to explain to them that nothing can be done, that the elections are over. I come to tell you: this presidential election is not played ”, Marine Le Pen launched on the RMC antenna.
? Everything is done to disgust the French with politics, to explain to them that nothing can be done, that the elections are over. I come to tell you: this presidential election is not over! #GGRMC pic.twitter.com/DEMOlB2asx
– Marina Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) March 8, 2022
Still, the planets seem to align perfectly for Emmanuel Macron. This is shown by the Ifop board for Paris Match and Sud-Radio, published on Tuesday. The popularity index of the Head of State there jumped eleven points, to 51% of favorable opinions. All of his opponents in the presidential elections, with the notable exception of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are falling. A particularly marked drop for Valérie Pécresse (34% of favorable opinions, seven points less) and for Éric Zemmour (27% of good opinions, six points less).